The Epidemic Volatility Index: predictions for COVID-19

Figure 1. Daily confirmed cases of COVID-19, presented on the original scale, with red dots corresponding to dates that, according to EVI, an early warning was issued.

Figure 2. Daily confirmed cases of COVID-19, presented on the logarithmic scale, which facilitates the comparison of the steepness of the epidemic curve between the different waves.

Figure 3. Positive predictive values (PPV ) for the days that an early warning was issued. Higher color intensity corresponds to PPV closer to the value of 1.

Figure 4. Negative predictive values (NPV) for the days that an early warning was not issued. Higher color intensity corresponds to NPV closer to the value of 1.

Confirmed COVID-19 cases are retrieved from the COVID-19 Data Repository.